How To Make Expert NFL Picks More Often Than Not
Jason Smith | April 30, 2011It is not easy to make expert NFL picks consistently. The point spread makes it even more challenging. The professionals who are setting the point spreads are the real experts. They have more experience than you and frequently will have inside information that you don’t. You can be an expert and lose more often than not. You must be discriminating in the games you choose to pick. The more discriminating you become, the better your winning percentage.
Keep in mind that the point spread is set by the true experts. They are picking the team they think will win while also making the spread as tight as possible to balance the money bet on each team. They will adjust the point spread at times to adjust the amount bet on each team. The spread can change in the days leading up to a game. The Super Bowl is generally a good example of this. The initial point spread is usually not the final number. When the spread is first announced, if you think is is in your favor, bet it, don’t delay or you may lose your best chance to win.
Second, you must remember that football is unpredictable. No matter how much you analyze or study, strange things tend to happen. Injuries, weather conditions, turnovers, and last second score changes are a part of the game. You can be and expert and still lose when you should win. You will also get some gift wins when you should lose.
The third thing to remember is that you do not have to pick every game every week. Play only those games that you think you will win. You can pick individual games or you can pick multiple games on a parlay card, but only pick the games you feel good about.
The fourth and probably most important thing to remember is to not get emotionally involved in your picks. If you do you will lose. Do not pick winners based on your favorite teams, colors, mascots or hometowns. You must remain impartial. If you must, avoid games where you are emotionally involved. This is the hardest thing to do. There are countless stories of winners turned into losers on the one pick that shouldn’t have been made.
Remember that there no sure things, however if you follow these rules you will minimize your losses and when you have the inevitable good or great weeks, they will far outweigh the bad weeks.
The guidelines will help you make expert NFL picks.
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